Technology‐push,market‐demand and the missing safety‐pull: a case study of American Airlines Flight 587

Through a critical case study of the crash of American Airlines Flight 587, this paper draws upon ‘the Social Shaping of Technology’ (SST) approach to offer a reconceptualisation of the technology‐push and market‐demand model for High‐Reliably Organisations (HROs), providing support for a third factor, called here a ‘safety‐pull’. A safety‐pull is defined as organisationally supported reflexivity in which technology innovators and frontline operators collaborate to consider the potential implications of adopting new technologies in HROs and the complex ways this change may impact human operators' work performance, often in risky and unanticipated ways. In contrast to accidents occurring solely as the result of individual operator error, analysing the safety‐pull provides a way to tease out the wide range of factors that can contribute to HRO failures and offers a new SST perspective through which to examine high‐risk operations.     

数控仿真软件在数控教学中的应用——以车削零件加工为例

为了提高《数控机床与编程》课程的教学质量,把数控仿真软件应用引入到课堂教学,并结合车削零件加工,展示数控仿真软件整体加工过程,结果极大提高学生课堂的兴趣,提高了教学效果,也提高学生的数控编程能力和数控机床操作能力,保证了教学质量。     

深部沿空掘巷窄煤柱合理宽度数值模拟分析

合理的煤柱宽度能够保证工作面巷道的稳定性,改善沿空掘巷维护状况,降低由于矿山压力造成的巷道变形,煤柱宽度的确定对于提高煤柱回收率、保障安全高效的生产起到积极作用。本文针对煤矿沿空掘巷具体生产地质条件,采用数值计算及现场试验相结合的方法,研究了沿空掘巷窄煤柱的合理的煤柱宽度,得到S2105瓦斯排放巷和S2106回风巷之间合理煤柱宽度为8 m,为该矿地质条件下煤柱留设的合理宽度确定提供了理论依据。     

基于DEFORM微型齿轮模具入模角分析及选用

对微型齿轮模具入模角挤压成形的影响进行有限元模拟,利用DEFORM软件模拟其成形过程中的金属流动充填规律和变形中应力应变、载荷特征,揭示了其微成形过程的变形机理,选择合理入模角实验,挤出形状良好的微型齿轮。     

A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.     

Economic Impacts of Improved Connectivity for ASEAN: An Application of the Geographical Simulation Model

We compare the prioritized projects of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) and the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) by utilizing the Institute of Developing Economies/Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia Geographical Simulation Model. The prioritized projects of the MPAC mainly focus on specific hard or soft infrastructure projects connecting one remote area of an ASEAN member state to another and thus fail to capture the full potential of the infrastructure because of neglected important links within a state. On the other hand, the CADP emphasizes the importance of economic corridors or linkages between a large cluster and another cluster. Our simulation analysis shows that CADP projects will result in an addition to gross domestic product (GDP) of $US 1544bn over the period from 2021 to 2030 (in 2010 dollars) or an impact on ASEAN countries that is 12 times larger than MPAC projects. The results strongly suggest that the CADP projects should be adopted and implemented to fully realize the potential economic growth of the ASEAN countries. Moreover, the CADP will contribute more to narrowing the development gaps among the ASEAN countries than MPAC prioritized projects.     

Designing futures: Inquiry in climate change communication

There are many barriers and challenges associated with climate change communication focused on promoting community-based action for sustainable futures. Of particular interest is the challenge to embed community perspectives in a communication process of climate change solutions. In this paper we argue that 3D interactive simulations using design inquiry as a development process, can be an effective way of communicating climate change solutions and multiple community responses. People are more likely to engage with the challenges associated with complexity of climate change at the local level when their perspectives are integrated into viable and multiple pathways for action. Future scenarios of change processes situated in local experiences in compelling and interactive ways can be disseminated holistically by making links between scientific, social, political, economic and cultural elements. Design inquiry, as a research approach, integrates contextual knowledge into communication processes to aid imagining, re-thinking and reembodying viable pathways that explore the kinds of futures we collectively envision. This paper examines the contributions that design inquiry makes to climate change communication using an interactive simulation environment for designing futures. We discuss these ideas using the example of the Future Delta project, a virtual 3D environment that enables the exploration and simulation of multiple community-based climate change solutions in the Corporation of Delta, British Columbia.     

基于多智能体的城市生态保护红线多情景模拟

生态红线划定是城市可持续发展的基础,目前的生态红线划定主要采用国家生态红线划分标准来进行,没有考虑与城市建设用地空间的相互协调,为了解决这一问题,以多智能体系统理论为基础构建"城市建设用地—生态保护红线"协调的决策模型,协调城市建设发展与生态环境保护的现实需要,确定不同保护和发展模式下的城市生态红线。以鄂州市作为研究区域进行实验,模拟了不同生态保护模式下的生态保护红线划定情况,结果表明在生态红线划定中考虑多主体的决策因素有助于协调优化城市生态环境保护与城市发展的矛盾。     

农村集体建设用地空间研究进展与展望

我国农村集体建设用地空间布局混乱,而现有关于农村集体建设用地空间研究方面存在理论与方法缺陷。文章对农村集体建设用地空间格局及机制、农村集体建设用地的空间优化、城乡建设用地统一空间研究领域相关研究进展进行综述,结论为现有研究存在理论体系尚未建立、研究内容不健全、研究方法以定性描述和空间描述为主等问题。建议未来该领域研究应跳出传统土地管理相关理论,多学科交叉,探索地理学、经济学在农村集体建设用地空间研究方面的理论框架;基于空间格局—演变机制—优化配置的思路,构建农村集体建设用地空间格局演变动力模型、农村集体建设用地空间与人口/产业的相互影响模型、城乡建设用地统一空间模型,从农村集体建设用地空间格局及其演变机制、农村集体建设用地空间与人口/产业的协调机制、城乡联系机制下的农村集体建设用地空间优化3方面来开展农村集体建设用地空间研究。     

基于不同Logistic模型的土地利用格局模拟对比研究——以湖北省宣恩县和咸丰县为例

模拟土地利用空间格局分布规律对合理利用土地资源、制定土地利用规划、协调土地与经济、环境的关系具有十分重要的意义。土地利用格局存在空间异质性,对比不同地区格局特征规律对加深土地利用格局的认识具有重要意义。以邻接的湖北省宣恩县和咸丰县为研究对象,通过对比基于局地因子、自相关因子和邻域因子的3种Logistic模型的模拟参数的一致性和异质性来对比研究两地的格局分布规律。实验与分析结果表明,宣恩县和咸丰县的土地利用格局特征存在共同的驱动因子和聚集效应,具有共性;不同模型的模拟结果表明驱动因子在作用方向,大小方面存在差异,邻域因子在邻域尺度上表现出不同特征。研究结果对加深理解不同地区的土地利用分布格局特征的差异性,促进区域土地利用的规划、土地资源的合理开发与可持续发展战略的顺利实施具有一定的参考价值。